生態(tài)環(huán)境部通報2018-2019年藍(lán)天保衛(wèi)戰(zhàn)重點(diǎn)區(qū)域強(qiáng)化督查工作進(jìn)展（7月29日）

 

      專家點(diǎn)評觀點(diǎn)

 

　2018年7月30日，生態(tài)環(huán)境部通報了2018-2019年藍(lán)天保衛(wèi)戰(zhàn)重點(diǎn)區(qū)域強(qiáng)化督查工作的進(jìn)展，燃煤鍋爐的淘汰位列通報第一項(xiàng)，檢查清單內(nèi)應(yīng)淘汰燃煤鍋爐企業(yè)352家，發(fā)現(xiàn)1臺燃煤鍋爐未拆除，占比0.3%；發(fā)現(xiàn)清單外應(yīng)淘汰燃煤鍋爐28臺。

 

      國家推進(jìn)“煤改氣”的目標(biāo)和決心引發(fā)各界對天然氣供應(yīng)問題的關(guān)注。2017年底頻頻刷屏的『氣荒』和『氣短』到底該如何解決？

 

      下文專家觀點(diǎn)分享節(jié)選自李俊峰主任于2017年12月發(fā)表的文章《共同推動『煤改氣』成為得民心、順民意的民心工程和德政工程》，今天回頭看，依然有很強(qiáng)的指導(dǎo)意義。

 

      根據(jù)國家發(fā)委公布的數(shù)據(jù)，我國2017年天然氣消費(fèi)量為2373億立方米，比2016年增長15.3%，天然氣消費(fèi)量增加315億立方米。據(jù)李俊峰主任估計，其中由“煤改氣”增加的天然氣消費(fèi)量不會超過50億-60億立方米，僅占2017年全國天然氣消費(fèi)量的2%多一點(diǎn)，占全年新增天然氣消費(fèi)量的1/6左右。

 

      我國天然氣消費(fèi)的彈性比較大，替代性也比較強(qiáng)，供求關(guān)系形勢變化比較快。各地在為天然氣消費(fèi)不足發(fā)愁，千方百計地擴(kuò)大天然氣消費(fèi)市場，就是一個明顯的例證。

 

      由此可以看出，只要各方面工作到位，保障“煤改氣”的用氣量是沒有問題的?，F(xiàn)在只要政府稍微協(xié)調(diào)一下，大部分問題就可以得到解決。比如國家發(fā)展改革委要求各大企業(yè)之間進(jìn)行互?；ス⒛蠚獗彼?、壓縮天然氣發(fā)電保民用等措施，用氣形勢就立刻得到了很大改觀。

 

      同時“煤改氣”過程中出現(xiàn)的“氣荒”“氣短”等問題，給各級政府和企業(yè)敲響了警鐘，“煤改氣”之后，保障農(nóng)村天然氣供應(yīng)也應(yīng)該納入國家層面的協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制。一些成熟的協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制，比如電力系統(tǒng)的“迎峰度夏”，北方冬季供暖的煤炭儲備協(xié)調(diào)機(jī)制等，都值得借鑒。

 

      民生無小事，期望有關(guān)部門建立保障城鄉(xiāng)居民用氣的協(xié)商機(jī)制，制定各種預(yù)案，防患于未然，把問題解決在萌芽之中。

 

      OilChem Insights

 

      How to Overcome Gas Shortage in the Campaign to Switch Coal to Gas?

 

      The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) updated the progress of supervision about clean air action in key areas, the elimination of coal-fueled boiler was ranked first in the release, and there was one item of violation in the list of 352 enterprises who should eliminate coal-fueled boilers.

 

      The target and determination of China’s promotion of coal conversion to gas have raised concerns about natural gas supply. How to solve the gas shortage that occurred frequently in the winter of 2017?

 

      The comments below are adapted from the article published by Li Junfeng in Dec. 2017. Even today, there is still a great deal of significance.

 

      According to the data released by NDRC, China's natural gas consumption volume was 237.3 billion cubic meters in 2017, up 31.5 billion cubic meters or 15.3 percent compared to 2016. It was estimated by Li Junfeng that, the increased natural gas consumption by coal conversion to gas was 5 to 6 billion cubic meters, accounting for a little more than 2 percent of the total natural gas consumption, or one sixth of the newly added natural gas consumption in China in 2017.

 

      China's natural gas consumption sees a strong substitutability and volume flexibility, and the supply and demand status changes rapidly. The worries over natural gas consumption shortage and efforts to expand its market is an obvious evidence of that.

 

      So, there is no problem to guarantee the coal conversion to gas volume if all aspects of work are arranged properly by the government, such as the mutual supply among major gas enterprises, gas transportation from South to North, and securing residential use by reducing electricity generating.

 

      Meanwhile, the gas shortage during the coal conversion to gas is an alert to governments and enterprises. The security of gas supply of rural areas should be incorporated to the coordination mechanism at the national level. Some mature mechanism is worthy of taking for reference, such as summer peak of electricity system and coal storage coordination mechanism during winter heating season.

 

      專家介紹

 

      李俊峰，國家應(yīng)對氣候變化戰(zhàn)略和國際合作中心首任主任、第九屆扎耶德未來能源終身成就獎獲得者。